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Extended AivelX logo, 'AivelX' in Roboto Mono, symbolizing algorithmic trading and probability key level calculation

AivelX Quick Start Guide: Understanding the Core Concepts

A visual representation of how AivelX's machine learning models look at the different timeframes


Welcome to the AivelX Quick Start Guide! Crafted with feedback and inquiries from our Exclusive Discord Community members, this guide is tailored to answer the most pressing questions and address the unique requirements of our user base.

As you embark on your trading journey with us, we want to ensure that you have a comprehensive understanding of the unique tools and insights AivelX brings to the table.

Unlike traditional trading tools, AivelX combines advanced artificial intelligence with decades of market data, offering you an unparalleled edge in the market. Whether you're a novice trader just starting out or a seasoned expert seeking an enhanced trading experience, this guide is curated to provide you with an overview of the unique features and terminologies AivelX boasts.

Note: This guide is going to be updated periodically to maintain its relevance and accuracy. The date it was last updated will be displayed in this Introduction section.

Table of Contents

  1. Glossary of Key Terms

  2. Reference Trades

  3. AI Score

  4. Target and its Hit Probability

  5. Range Risk

  6. Estimated Top/Bottom dates range and its Significance

  7. All-Time Highs (ATH), All-Time Lows (ATL), and Multi-Year Extremes

By the end of this guide, we aim to equip you with a thorough understanding of AivelX's methodologies, providing you with the confidence to utilize our insights to their fullest potential. As you continue to explore the various facets of the platform, always remember that we're here to support and guide you every step of the way.

1. Glossary of Key Terms

VST (Very-Short Term)

Average Bull Swing Trade duration: 4 days

Average Bear Swing Trade duration: 3 days

ST (Short Term)

Average Bull Swing Trade duration: 30 days

Average Bear Swing Trade duration: 20 days

MT (Medium Term)

Average Bull Swing Trade duration: 39 weeks

Average Bear Swing Trade duration: 16 weeks

LT (Long Term)

Average Bull Swing Trade duration: 42 months

Average Bear Swing Trade duration: 10 months

Note: Estimated trade durations for each setup are determined based on the reference trades that are taken into consideration by the AI. The durations listed above broadly represent the average duration derived from all reference trades present in the data on which the machine learning models are being trained.

Reference Trades

These denote a collection of historical trades or market movements bearing similarities to the present market context in terms of conditions or attributes. At AivelX, Reference Trades serve as a key tool to offer a comparative perspective, guiding traders in understanding potential market reactions based on past analogous circumstances.

AI Score

A proprietary metric developed by AivelX that quantifies the strength and reliability of a particular trend or pattern using artificial intelligence algorithms.


The estimated price level or range that a particular asset is expected to reach based on AivelX's analysis.

Range Risk

The expected price fluctuation of an asset within a specified timeframe. It's important to recognize that even if the price moves to the limit of this range, such movement should be viewed as a standard market behavior for that timeframe.


The highest price level reached by an asset within a specified timeframe.


The lowest price level reached by an asset within a specified timeframe.

velX Models

A suite of machine learning models developed by AivelX, integrating various technical, statistical, and AI-driven methodologies to produce insights and analysis for traders.

As you delve deeper into AivelX's insights, understanding these terms becomes pivotal in making informed trading decisions.

2. Reference Trades

Reference Trades play a crucial role in AivelX's analytical methodology. They provide the foundational data against which key metrics, such as the AI Score and target hit probabilities, are measured. A deep understanding of their function is essential to appreciate AivelX's distinctive approach.

These trades capture historical market movements that display algorithmic and technical similarities to current market dynamics. Simply put, they reflect conditions or attributes seen in previous market phases, serving as informative 'echoes' from the past.

By studying these past events, AivelX offers traders a perspective grounded in historical data, enabling them to better estimate potential market behaviors. Even though market activities can seem unique, they are often shaped by patterns or trends that have shown up previously. Recognizing and leveraging these patterns can offer traders a significant edge.

In essence, Reference Trades are more than just a record of past market behaviors. They form the core of AivelX's analytical process, facilitating a thorough comparison between past and current market conditions. As AivelX's models are continually enhanced, more Reference Trades are incorporated, increasing the platform's accuracy. This method of comparison, where patterns from the past are matched with the present, equips traders with a powerful tool that connects historical knowledge with current market opportunities.

Note on the Number of Reference Trades

If you observe that there aren't many reference trades available for a particular setup, it suggests that such a setup is uncommon in historical data. This rarity might indicate that the current market configuration is overextended.

Situations that haven't manifested frequently in the past can hint at a potential market reversal. Furthermore, exercising caution becomes paramount: depending solely on a limited number of reference trades might not be the wisest strategy, especially when more robust setups with lots of reference trades exist on other tickers.

3. AI Score

The AI Score is a fundamental component of AivelX's analytical framework. Recognizing its intricacies and significance is vital for traders aiming to make the most of the insights AivelX delivers.

Developed using advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, the AI Score quantifies the strength of a specific trend or pattern. This metric goes beyond traditional technical indicators by integrating extensive data, including insights from Reference Trades, ensuring a comprehensive and accurate representation of market dynamics.

Each AI Score represents an intensive analytical evaluation of both current and historical market data. The primary objective is to discern the likelihood of a trend's continuation or alteration. This provides traders with actionable insights for potential future market movements. A higher score indicates a more established and likely trend, while a lower score might hint at a potential top or bottom and subsequent reversal.

At its core, the AI Score is a testament to AivelX's advanced analytical capabilities. By combining the power of artificial intelligence with historical market data, the AI Score equips traders with a perspective that is both forward-looking and deeply anchored in past market behaviors. It stands as a tool that assists traders in navigating market complexities, facilitating more informed and strategic decision-making.

4. Target and its Hit Probability

Within AivelX's analytical framework, the Target stands as an estimate of an asset's potential future price level. This estimate is based on rigorous analysis of historical patterns and empirical data. By comparing current market conditions with past patterns identified in our expansive set of Reference Trades, AivelX determines this potential price point.

Each target is complemented by a "hit probability" which quantifies the likelihood of the asset achieving this estimated price. This probability is calculated by assessing how often past market situations, as delineated in the Reference Trades, have led to similar targets being reached.

It is crucial to grasp the probabilistic nature of these estimates. A high hit probability associated with a target does not equate to certainty. Failing to meet a particular target, even one with a high associated probability, does not denote an analytical error or a trade failure. For context, consider casino games. The roulette wheel might have a low probability of landing on the green 0 or double 0, yet it remains a possible outcome. The realm of trading operates similarly, relying on probabilities rather than guaranteed outcomes.

In AivelX's approach, target price determination is anchored in a unique methodology. By referencing our comprehensive database of historical data and Reference Trades, we identify and draw parallels to past market situations. Based on these findings, a target price is estimated.

This approach offers traders a clear advantage: a data-backed target coupled with a transparently calculated probability. Together, these elements provide traders with a depth of understanding, positioning them to make informed decisions grounded in both historical precedent and probabilistic analysis.

5. Range Risk

Every trade comes with an associated risk, which varies based on the timeframe, be it Very-Short Term (VST), Short Term (ST), Medium Term (MT), or Long Term (LT). Historically, assets have demonstrated a consistent average price movement within each of these timeframes. This average price range, referred to as the "Range Risk," is an essential metric for traders to understand and monitor.

Effective risk management hinges on the clarity of potential price fluctuations within these timeframes. By understanding the expected movement or range risk, traders can make well-informed decisions, set suitable entry and exit points, and determine optimal position sizes. Additionally, knowledge of the range risk aids in establishing protective measures, such as stop-loss orders, to mitigate potential losses.

Drawing on the principles outlined by Mark Douglas, the emphasis on recognizing and adapting to market volatility is paramount. With a clear perspective on the range risk, traders can navigate market dynamics, optimizing their strategies to maximize gains while minimizing exposure.

6. Estimated Top/Bottom dates range and its Significance

In the world of financial analytics, the estimated top/bottom date range stands out as a critical metric. This measure offers an estimate derived from the average dates on which historical reference trades either peaked (topped) or reached their lowest point (bottomed).

However, it's essential to note that markets, by their nature, can present deviations from the average. Some trades might reach their peak or trough almost immediately, while others might take considerably longer. These outliers underscore the importance of understanding that the estimated top/bottom date range provides a general framework rather than a definitive prediction.

Additionally, the occurrence of a top or bottom does not necessarily coincide with the achievement of the target price. A trade might experience its peak or trough either before or after the target is hit. As such, while the estimated date range offers valuable insights into potential turning points in the market, traders should approach it as one of many tools in their analytical toolkit.

Understanding the nuances of the estimated top/bottom date range provides traders with an additional layer of strategic depth, helping them better navigate the intricate dynamics of the market. By factoring in the potential for outliers and the distinction between tops/bottoms and target achievements, professionals can optimize their trading decisions, aligning their strategies with the ever-evolving environment of financial markets.

7. All-Time Highs (ATH), All-Time Lows (ATL), and Multi-Year Extremes

When an asset achieves its ATH, ATL, or even multi-year highs and lows, it enters a domain less frequented by its historical price movements. These milestones, especially ATH and ATL, signify a transition into areas where established historical data points may be limited.

AivelX’s analytical model derives its strength from the analysis of historical reference trades, utilizing them to determine target price estimations. In scenarios where assets are at ATH, ATL, or significant multi-year levels, the limited historical context impacts our ability to offer specific target predictions.

That said, it's essential for market participants to recognize that even in the absence of a precise target, these scenarios still present valuable insights. The AI Score and Estimated Top/Bottom offer valuable perspectives on the trend's momentum and potential turning points, even if an exact price target is not delineated.

In line with our dedication to evolving our platform, we are in the process of researching ways to derive potential tops or bottoms during these significant high or low periods. The intention is to analyze the tendencies of reference trades in comparable past scenarios and extrapolate this knowledge for future trend predictions.

Our objective remains consistent: to augment our analytical framework, allowing traders to navigate confidently in all market situations, even when navigating the less charted territories of ATHs, ATLs, and significant multi-year extremes.


In the complex world of trading, having distinct, actionable insights can make all the difference. AivelX stands apart by combining artificial intelligence with comprehensive historical market data, offering traders a novel perspective on market trends and potential movements.

The aim of this guide is to elucidate AivelX's unique analytical tools and methodologies. By harnessing the power of Reference Trades and the AI Score, AivelX offers an approach that diverges from traditional market analyses. Central to its differentiation is the platform's ability to serve as a leading indicator, enabling traders to navigate market intricacies with a higher degree of foresight.

We believe that in-depth understanding and precise information are critical for informed trading decisions. AivelX is committed to providing both, ensuring that traders have the resources they need to optimize their strategies in an ever-evolving market landscape.

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